Monday, March 18, 2013

INNOVATION is key to this. Go for 1) DIVERSITY, and 2) ENERGY.

The stereotypical view is that China will continue to grow and overtake America in both GDP and military spending terms. But that is what happened with Japan, and the other Asian tigers (Taiwan, S.Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore). But the difference is that the tigers focused on catching up with the western modernised countries with state-led import-substitution development.
This can work.. to a certain point (look at Japan and S.Korea now).
This is when an equilibrium has been reached and any further increase in capital goods (factories, etc.) or human resources (labour) will not increase the overall output (due to depreciation factors).
This means that the only move forward from this point is to change the factors within technology; i.e. INNOVATION.
Japan and even China has been attempting to retain, attract, or win back 'brains' (the best graduates from around the world). But as in the past, most of these people no matter where they were born and raised end in the USA.
Looking at these patterns and trends, and moving forward, I would suggest that China will continue to grow and possibly overtake America in both GDP and military spending, but will not be able to significantly overtake America (or other rising countries). Thus the world will not be unipolar (with another country overtaking the now hegemonic USA), but will become multipolar (with many significantly powerful countries vying against each other for power).
Also, what will delay the Asian rise is social factors, notably an aging population and a low birth rate.. (Japan's population has already started to decrease; Korea's birth rate is one of the lowest in the world; and China still has in place the one-child policy).
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Anyway, looking at this real-life scenario I would suggest we need to take the same attitude in our pesonal life, that is we need to focus on INNOVATION in order to grow and push ourselves. Why is this important? Most high positions in global companies demand not one-sided strengths in employees, but balanced employees with strengths in many areas, able to take up any position in the company, and trained in all areas. Japan has already in place an education system (notably in university) where all students must complete a foundation in all subject areas before specializing in one area. Global companies and government organisations in Australia require all new grad recruits to undertake training in all areas of the business before working in one section.
The world is changing too fast, and we can't have a plan for everything.
We need to have the personal attributes and characteristics for us to be flexible when things change quickly, and be able to continue to perform at a very  high degree in previously unknown areas. We must have strengths in all areas.
INNOVATION is key to this.

And two things I will focus on from now in order to facilitate that is:
1) DIVERSITY, and 2) ENERGY.
Keep doing, keep going, keep fighting while challenging oneself in many differnt places, tasks, areas, work and hobbies. It will keep pushing yourself in many different spaces and increase your ability to cope with many different problems with flexibility.

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